Vienna calling

A weekly newsletter on German politics, with news and analysis on the new government.
By MATTHEW KARNITSCHNIG
with NETTE NÖSTLINGER
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Servus! und Grüß Gott! from the world’s second-largest German-speaking city, where all eyes are on this weekend’s knife-edge national election that could vault a party founded by a tribe of old Nazis into power for the first time since 1945. 
Inglorious Basterds: The anti-migrant, pro-Russian Freedom Party (FPÖ), founded by former SS officers in the 1950s, is on the cusp of its greatest electoral success — if one can believe the polls. The party is led by Herbert Kickl, a failed philosophy student turned right-wing ideologue who wants to shut the borders to migrants and erect a “Fortress Austria.” 
Endsieg? The party has led the field since November of 2022, but the race has recently narrowed, putting the far-right Freedomites just a nose ahead of the establishment Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), which currently runs the country with their junior partners, the Greens.  
Achtung! Austria might be small but it’s location at the heart of Europe lends it strategic importance on an array of issues, including trade and migration. A far-right victory would create a populist, Euroskeptic Central European bloc encompassing Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, and possibly the Czech Republic in the near future. 
Flooding the zone: The campaign, which has focused like most recent European elections on the issue of migration, took an unexpected turn this month following devastating flooding across a lard swathe of rural Austria. The disaster shifted the public’s focus to the issue of climate change, which the FPÖ denies is happening, opening the door for the ÖVP, which has been dogged by years of corruption scandals, to present itself as the more reasonable alternative. 
Gutfellas: As the Bulletin’s very own Austria correspondent Matt Karnitschnig wrote today, the only thing one can say for sure about Sunday is that the People’s Party, which has been part of every government since 1987, will be the winner. The party, he argues, has transformed itself from a political force into a syndicate whose purpose is to secure jobs, favors and power for its members. It’s Austria’s answer to the Cosa Nostra, just that no one gets shot.    
Coalition Poker: Building a coalition will be complicated — or not. If the FPÖ wins big, it can likely coax the ÖVP into a coalition. Given that all the other parties have ruled out governing with the far right, the FPÖ has no other option, giving the ÖVP considerable leverage, even if it finishes a distant second. 
Hard to get: ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer, the current chancellor, has ruled out a government with Kickl, but that doesn’t mean he won’t jump into the sack with the FPÖ if they find another role for Kickl, such as a senior position in parliament. That would allow the FPÖ to field a more moderate figure as chancellor, someone who would also be acceptable to Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen, who has the power to veto cabinet nominations. 
What if the ÖVP wins? If the party manages to eke out a victory, the dynamic would be similar. Its preference would likely be to form a coalition with the far right, as it has done following recent regional elections. The only alternative would be a three-way coalition with the Social Democrats and either the liberal Neos or the Greens, which would be more complicated to manage — at least on paper. 
“We’re going to Ibiza:” It’s worth remembering that the ÖVP’s last two coalitions with the Freedom Party at the federal level did not end well.  
Election night: Tune in to Politico.eu on election night for the latest from “the Arnold Schwarzenegger of pan-European journalism.” 
Leadership miseries: The two national leaders of Germany’s Greens on Wednesday announced that they will step down following a string of poor election results. “New faces are needed to lead the party out of this crisis,” Ricarda Lang, one of the outgoing leaders, said at a press conference. The next morning, the entire board of the party’s youth organization announced its resignation and a plan to start a new left party, arguing that they could no longer identify with the Greens’ policy stances, which, in their view, have become too centrist.
By the numbers: In a key regional election in the eastern state of Brandenburg on Sunday, the Greens crashed out of state parliament, winning just around 4 percent of the vote, below the 5-percent threshold needed to gain parliamentary seats and a drop of nearly 7 percentage points from the last election in the state five years ago. That result followed other poor outcomes for the party in state elections earlier this month and in the European election in June.  
Climate what? Among the reasons for the party’s decline in popularity: Voters are turning much of their attention away from the party’s core issue of fighting climate change. Persistent infighting within the three-party coalition government in Berlin is also not helping.
The only question now for the party is what its new strategy will be for reviving its fortunes. Tack to the center? The left flank of the party won’t like that. Tack to the left? That will cause centrists to abandon the party. A new leadership duo for the Greens will be tasked with figuring out what to do ahead of Germany’s next national election in September of 2025. The vote on a new leadership team will take place during a party conference in mid-November.
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The AfD is here: The first session of the Thuringia state parliament devolved into chaos this week. Readers might recall that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came in first in a state there at the start of this month. On Thursday, the body was supposed to elect a president. It didn’t work out.
Elder statesman? According to the tradition, the oldest member of parliament is to lead the first session. That person just so happened to be Jürgen Treutler, a 73-year-old AfD politician. But Treutler interrupted the session several times, refusing to allow motions or votes and turned off parliamentarians’ microphones. The session eventually came to an end after four tumultuous hours, with the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) appealing to the state’s constitutional court for an intervention. Parliamentarians are set to reconvene on Saturday to try again.
Why the fight? The CDU had together with the populist-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) handed in a motion to amend the rules of procedure when it comes to the election of the president of parliament. According to the current rules, the AfD, as the strongest parliamentary party, has the right to nominate candidates for the position first. But the CDU and BSW wanted other parliamentary groups to be able to make proposals from the outset too.
What followed: The AfD’s block of the proceedings led to renewed calls for a party ban. “Today’s events in the Thuringian state parliament have shown that the #AfD is aggressively combating parliamentarianism. I think that the prerequisites for a ban procedure are therefore in place,” the state’s outgoing SPD interior minister, Georg Maier, wrote on X.
High hurdles: Germany’s constitution allows for bans of parties that “seek to undermine or abolish the free democratic basic order.” In reality, the legal hurdle for imposing a ban is very high. Moreover, opponents of a ban argue such a step could further fuel the party and alienate its growing voter base.
SYMBOLIC BORDER CHECKS? Last week, the German government launched tighter controls on its land borders, ostensibly to reduce irregular migration and improve security. But the measures aren’t making much of a difference, according to Andreas Roßkopf, who heads the country’s police union. The number of apprehensions of illegal immigrants and smugglers is relatively low, he said, while the number of asylum seekers — who are still permitted to enter the country even with the checks — remains high.
SCHOLZ DETHRONED? Scholz announced over the summer that he intends to run for reelection next year. Some in his party seem to think that is maybe not such a good idea given his record low approval ratings. A recent survey will probably not help. Two out of three Germans think Defense Minister Boris Pistorius should replace Scholz as the SPD’s lead candidate, according to a Forsa poll, while just 21 percent think Scholz is the right man for the job.
MACRON IN BERLIN: French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to take part in the Berlin Global Dialogue conference on Wednesday. A bilateral talk with Scholz in the chancellory is scheduled for noon.
CALIFORNIA BOUND: Justice Minister Marco Buschmann will be in the U.S. from Wednesday to Saturday for talks with decision-makers and to visit Silicon Valley.
That’s all for now. See you back here next week!
HATE MAIL: Send complaints (if you must), tips, checks and random thoughts to [email protected]. You’ll also find me on X @mkarnitschnig.
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